Tuesday, January 12, 2010

Ronaldo for Brazil (v Germany), 30 June 2002

There are lots of betting markets and discussions flying about already as to who will play who in the latter stages of the 2010 World Cup.

For example, I was involved in a discussion the other day with someone who was convinced England would lose to Portugal in the quarter finals in South Africa. I was pretty sure I was right, and I checked my schedule to make sure. England can't actually meet Portugal in the quarter finals, irrespective of where the two finish in Group C and Group G respectively.

Similarly, assuming Germany and Spain win their respective groups (they should do) then they can't meet in the World Cup Final. And yet, it's a 22/1 chance that they will be the two finalists when it is 25/1 that Germany will meet Brazil in the Final, which is perfectly plausible based on the draw.

Anyway, the moral is this: do your research.

(my tip, for what it's worth, is Brazil v Italy at 22/1. And, if Brazil or Spain don't win their group, they'll meet as early as the last sixteen. Eeeek.)

1 comment:

Adem said...

The seeding system for the draw's really annoys me and I do think that it should be FA Cup style random draws after the group games have been played (and perhaps after the first game after this when 1st/2nd placings in groups matter).

I know that this is partly because of scheduling etc but it still annoys me that routes are already in place for teams to get to the final.